GLORIARMS Research
Fed · ECB · Bank of England · Bank of Japan · SNB · Bank of Canada — all policy-rate changes since 2008 in one chart, plus current market expectations for the July meetings and year-end 2026.
Last updated: 19 July 2026
The energy-price shock triggered by the war in the Middle East has turned global monetary policy on its head: inflation had risen clearly above target in the spring but eased for the first time in June (euro area: 2.8% in June, down from 3.2% in May; US: headline CPI 3.5% in June, down from 4.2% in May — in both cases mainly on falling energy prices), while growth is cooling. The global rate-cutting cycle of 2024/25 has nonetheless effectively come to an end. The ECB made the first move: on June 11, 2026 it raised the deposit facility rate by 25 bp to 2.25% (effective June 17), becoming the first major Western central bank to reverse its easing cycle. The Bank of Japan followed, raising its policy rate to 1.00% on June 16 — the highest level since September 1995. The Fed (June 17), the Bank of England and the SNB (both June 18), by contrast, kept their rates unchanged, as did the Bank of Canada (June 10 and again July 15, its sixth consecutive hold). The result is a degree of monetary-policy divergence rarely seen in recent years.
The chart shows policy-rate paths as step lines — each step is a rate change; meetings without a rate change are not plotted. Clearly visible: the synchronized collapse during the 2008/09 financial crisis, the decade of zero and negative rates, the historically steep 2022/23 tightening cycle against the inflation wave, the 2024/25 easing cycle — and the current plateau, from which the ECB and the BoJ were the first to turn upwards again in June 2026.
Policy rates in % since January 2008. Fed: upper bound of the target range · ECB: deposit facility rate · BoJ/SNB: market convention — simplified policy-rate equivalents, not one-for-one comparable with Fed/ECB/BoE/BoC (see methodology). Final data point (July 19, 2026) is an as-of marker (no rate change); June steps plotted: ECB +25 bp to 2.25% (effective Jun 17) and BoJ +25 bp to 1.00% (Jun 16); the BoC held at 2.25% on July 15. Sources: official central bank records.
Publicly reported assessments by major international banks of expected policy-rate levels at year-end 2026. Compiled exclusively from media reports and freely accessible publications by the institutions themselves (no reproduction of paywalled research reports). These are third-party views as at the date indicated and may be revised at any time. Note: the steps expected for June have been delivered — ECB on Jun 11 (deposit rate 2.25%, effective Jun 17) and BoJ on Jun 16 (to 1.00%); the banks' year-end forecasts are unaffected.
| Bank | Fed now 3.50–3.75% | ECB now 2.25% | BoE now 3.75% | BoJ now 1.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 3.25–3.50% — one cut in Dec (05/2026) | 2.50% — hikes in Jun + Sep (04/2026) | 3.75% — extended hold, next cut only in 2027 (spring 2026) | Hike in July; terminal rate 1.50% by mid-2027 (12/2025 ¹) |
| J.P. Morgan | 3.50–3.75% — no cuts in 2026; next move more likely a hike in 2027 (03/2026) | 2.50–2.75% — hikes from June ² (03/2026) | 4.00% — one hike in June (04/2026) | 1.00% — hike in June (spring 2026) |
| Bank of America | 3.50–3.75% — next cut only July 2027; hike risk flagged (05/2026) | n/a | n/a | Terminal rate 1.50–1.75% by end-2027 (12/2025 ¹) |
| Deutsche Bank | 3.50–3.75% — on hold through 2026 (04/2026) | 2.50% — hikes in Jun + Sep (04/2026) | n/a — hawkish tone, no published number (05/2026) | n/a |
| Barclays | 3.50–3.75% — no cuts; next cut March 2027 (05/2026) | 2.50% — hikes in Jun + Sep (04/2026) | n/a — hike risk flagged (03/2026) | 1.25% — hikes in Jul + Dec ³ |
| HSBC | 3.50–3.75% — hold (Q1/2026) | 2.00% — hold (Q1/2026 ¹) | n/a | n/a ¹ |
| NatWest ⁴ | n/a — no publicly reported updated forecast found since its “Year Ahead 2026” (Dec 2025) | |||
| For comparison: market/consensus | 3.50–3.75% | 2.25–2.50% | 3.75–4.00% | 1.00–1.25% |
¹ Dated before the Middle East energy shock (late February 2026) — possibly superseded. ² Originally three hikes including April; the April hike did not materialise and no publicly reported revision could be found. ³ Reported via a secondary source only — treat with caution. ⁴ NatWest = formerly Royal Bank of Scotland.
Sources (selection): Reuters via Investing.com, Mar 20, 2026 (round-up of ECB/BoE hike calls: J.P. Morgan, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs) · CNBC, Mar 20, 2026 · investingLive, May 11, 2026 (GS/Fed) · TheStreet, Mar 2026 (JPM/Fed) · CBS News, May 2026 (BofA/Fed) · Reuters via Investing.com, Apr 17, 2026 (DB/Fed) · FXStreet, Apr 13, 2026 (DB/ECB) · Reuters via Investing.com, May 4, 2026 (Barclays/Fed) · Reuters via GBAF, Apr 2026 (JPM/BoE) · HSBC Global Economics Quarterly, Q1 2026 · NatWest Year Ahead 2026, Dec 2025 · Consensus row: Reuters polls of May 14 and Jun 3, 2026.
All institutions and trademarks mentioned are the property of their respective owners. They are referenced solely for source attribution; no affiliation with or endorsement by these institutions is implied.
Expectations have shifted dramatically since the outbreak of the war in late February 2026: as recently as February, markets were still pricing further rate cuts for 2026 almost everywhere — those bets have since been largely unwound. The ECB reversed its easing cycle on June 11 (its first hike since the cycle ended), while the BoJ continued the normalisation it began in March 2024 with its step to 1.00% on June 16.
| Central bank | Current rate | Next meeting (2026) | Expectation for next meeting | Expectation for year-end 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.50–3.75% | Jul 28–29 | Hold widely expected; after the soft June CPI (Jul 14) market pricing for a hike on Jul 29 is only ~8–15% (down from ~40%) | 3.50–3.75%; dot plot of Jun 17: 9 of 18 members saw a hike before year-end, but the near-term hike risk has fallen after the June data; J.P. Morgan: Fed on hold in 2026, first move more likely in 2027 |
| ECB | 2.25% | Jul 23 | Hike +25 bp effective since Jun 17 (decided Jun 11, a “done deal”); a pause is expected for July | 2.25–2.50%; a second step in September expected by >60% of economists |
| BoE | 3.75% | Jul 30 | Hold delivered on Jun 18 (vote 7–2 — two for +25 bp) | 3.75–4.00%; widest forecast range of the six (3.50% to 4.25%+) |
| BoJ | 1.00% | Jul 30–31 | Hike to 1.00% delivered on Jun 16 (vote 7–1) — highest since Sept 1995 | 1.00–1.25%; Goldman Sachs sees a terminal rate of 1.50% |
| SNB | 0.00% | Sept. | Hold delivered on Jun 18; greater willingness to intervene reaffirmed | 0.00%; a return to negative rates is considered unlikely |
| BoC | 2.25% | Sep 2 | Hold delivered on Jul 15 (6th consecutive hold); the MPR sees a recovery, with inflation ex-gasoline near 2% | 2.25% (economist consensus) vs. ~1 hike / about 16 bp by year-end (swaps price hikes from October) |
From the crisis-era zero rate (2008–2015) through two tightening cycles to the peak at 5.50% (July 2023). Cuts began in September 2024; the final three steps only followed in late 2025. Since December 2025: a plateau at 3.50–3.75%, confirmed on Jun 17, 2026 (12–0).
Eight years of negative rates (2014–2022), then the steepest tightening cycle in euro history up to 4.00%. Eight cuts brought the rate to 2.00% by June 2025. On June 11, 2026 the ECB raised the deposit rate for the first time since the cycle ended — to 2.25% (effective June 17) — making it the first major Western central bank to reverse from the 2024/25 easing cycle back into tightening.
A pandemic low of 0.10%, a peak at 5.25% (August 2023), followed by six quarterly cuts to 3.75%. On Jun 18, 2026 the BoE held at 3.75% (vote 7–2, two members for +25 bp).
The outlier: 16 years at or below zero (−0.10% from 2016), with the exit from negative rates only in March 2024. Including that March 2024 exit, five increases have taken the policy rate to 1.00% — most recently +25 bp on Jun 16, 2026 (vote 7–1), the highest level since September 1995.
At −0.75% (2015–2022), the SNB ran one of the lowest policy rates worldwide (Denmark was also at −0.75% for a time). After a brief excursion to 1.75%, six steps from March 2024 brought it back to 0.00% — confirmed there on Jun 18, 2026; excessive franc appreciation is addressed primarily through FX interventions rather than further rate cuts.
Nine cuts totalling 275 bp (June 2024 – October 2025) down to 2.25% — the most aggressive easing cycle of the six. Now caught in a squeeze: US tariffs weigh on growth while oil prices push up inflation. The swap market is pricing hikes from October (about 16 bp by year-end). On July 15, 2026 the BoC held at 2.25% for the sixth consecutive time; the July MPR sees an economic recovery and inflation ex-gasoline near 2%.
Current central bank interest rates and policy-rate changes by the ECB, the Fed, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the SNB and the Bank of Canada are the key driver of interest rate risk management in corporate treasury. Treasurers hedging interest rate exposure – with interest rate swaps, caps, floors or forward rate agreements – need a clear view of the latest rate decisions, the interest rate outlook and forecasts for 2026, and market-implied rate expectations: is the next move a rate hike or a rate cut? This page documents policy-rate paths and every policy-rate change since 2008, central bank meeting dates and current market expectations – a starting point for interest rate hedging strategies, funding decisions and treasury planning.
Interest rate differentials between currency areas also matter for FX risk management: they drive exchange rates, forward points and the hedging cost of currency protection. Corporate treasurers managing FX exposure from imports, exports or intercompany financing – using FX forwards, currency options or cross-currency swaps – will find the macro context for their hedging strategy here: ECB rate decisions, Fed rate decisions, the turn in the rate cycle, monetary-policy divergence, and what it means for EUR/USD, GBP, JPY, CHF and CAD in treasury management.
