Economic growth, inflation, labour markets, public finances and the external sector of the six major emerging economies: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Türkiye. Values from 2026 onwards are IMF projections (dashed); for GDP growth and inflation, dotted markers additionally show external forecaster consensus estimates.
Last updated: June 26, 2026
Current Overview (2025)
IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026: 2025 values are IMF estimates or preliminary data. Click a column header to sort. Colours are a rough guide based on simplified thresholds calibrated to emerging markets (e.g. growth green from 4%, inflation green up to 4%), not a substantive overall assessment. India: all IMF values are on a fiscal-year basis (April–March).
Economic Growth
Real GDP growth (% p.a.)
Annual change in real gross domestic product. China and India grow fastest; Mexico nearly stagnated in 2025 (0.6%). Clearly visible: the 2009 financial crisis and the 2020 Covid slump – China kept growing through both.
◇ Dotted from 2026: external forecaster consensus (central-bank surveys of analysts, Reuters polls), as of April–June 2026. External consensus values are indicative: the basis is not harmonised (calendar year, fiscal year or year-end values) and only partly comparable with IMF annual averages. India: IMF and RBI values are on a fiscal-year basis (April–March), not calendar year.
Real GDP, index (2000 = 100)
Total real GDP indexed to 2000 (not per capita – partly also population growth). The range is enormous: China has expanded almost sevenfold (index ~687 in 2025), India more than fourfold; Mexico (~143) and Brazil (~175) barely outgrew some G7 economies. IMF projection (dashed) from 2026.
Prices & Labour Market
Inflation (consumer prices, % p.a.)
Mind the scale: Türkiye dominates with its lira crisis (72% in 2022, still ~35% in 2025) – deselect the Türkiye chip above to hide it. China sits at the other extreme near zero (2025: ~0%, deflation risk).
◇ Dotted from 2026: external forecaster consensus (central-bank surveys of analysts, Reuters polls), as of April–June 2026. External consensus values are indicative: the basis is not harmonised (calendar year, fiscal year or year-end values) and only partly comparable with IMF annual averages. India: IMF and RBI values are on a fiscal-year basis (April–March), not calendar year.
Unemployment rate (%)
Unemployed as a share of the labour force, per IMF. Data availability is limited: China only from 2017 (surveyed urban rate), India from 2018 (PLFS); national definitions are only partly comparable. Structurally highest in Türkiye, lowest in Mexico.
No consistently comparable external forecaster consensus across all six countries was used for the unemployment rate – some countries do publish survey figures (e.g. Banxico for Mexico), but these are not harmonised and are therefore not shown as dotted lines; details in the pop-up.
Public Finances
Government gross debt (% of GDP)
General government gross debt. China has more than quadrupled its ratio since 2000, from ~23% to almost 100%, now ahead of Brazil and India; Türkiye, despite its inflation crisis, has the lowest ratio at ~24% (inflation erodes debt).
Government net debt (% of GDP)
Gross debt minus the government’s financial assets. Note: the IMF does not publish net debt ratios for China and India – only Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Türkiye appear here.
Government interest payments (% of GDP)
Interest paid on public debt. Brazil carries by far the heaviest burden at over 8% of GDP (high-rate environment), followed by Mexico and India; China pays under 1% despite its high debt ratio (low rates, domestic creditors). Data through 2024 (IMF Fiscal Monitor).
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
General government deficit (−) or surplus (+). China, Brazil and India ran deficits of 7–8% of GDP in 2025; Indonesia and Türkiye stayed below 3%.
External Sector
Current account balance (% of GDP)
A surplus means the economy earns more from abroad – across goods, services, primary income and current transfers – than it pays out. China runs structural surpluses; the other five were in moderate deficit in 2024, Brazil deepest at −3%.
Source: World Bank, data through 2024.
External sector in detail:
Selected components of the current account: goods and services balances compared with the total balance (2000–2024, % of GDP); the gap to the total reflects primary and secondary income. Mirror-image patterns: India and Türkiye offset goods deficits through services (IT exports and tourism respectively). China relies heavily on goods surpluses; Brazil also runs a goods surplus (+3% in 2024), but it is more than offset by services and income deficits (total balance −3%). Independent of the country filter above.
Productivity & Investment
Productivity: GDP per hour worked (PPP $)
Output per hour worked, adjusted for purchasing power (international $). The range spans a factor of 7: Türkiye (~$57) and Mexico (~$27) lead, India (~$8) trails – China (~$18) has roughly sextupled since 2000. For comparison, G7: $49–84. Data through 2023.
Investment ratio (% of GDP)
Gross fixed capital formation as % of GDP – equipment, construction, software etc. China invests an extraordinary ~40% of GDP (investment-driven model), Brazil the least at ~17% – less than any G7 country except the UK.
Working-Age Demographics
Working-age population (15–64, % of total)
Unlike in the G7, the working-age share has risen almost everywhere since 2000 – most strongly in India (+8 points, demographic dividend). The exception is China: its demographic peak (72.9% in 2010) has passed; the share has been trending down since (sideways most recently, 2022–2024).
Old-age dependency ratio (65+ per 100 of working age)
How many seniors must 100 working-age people notionally support? All six are still far below G7 levels (10–21 vs. 28–51), but China is ageing fastest by a wide margin – its ratio has doubled since 2000.
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Emerging Markets Economic Data, Outlook and Macro Context for Business Planning and Treasury
Economic growth, inflation and unemployment rates across the six major emerging markets – China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Türkiye – increasingly drive the global economy. This page documents GDP forecasts for 2026 and 2027 from the IMF World Economic Outlook alongside consensus estimates from central-bank surveys and analyst polls (including BCB Focus, the Banxico expert survey, the RBI Survey of Professional Forecasters, the CBRT market participants survey and Reuters polls), plus time series back to 2000: real GDP growth, inflation trends, labour market data and a side-by-side comparison of the emerging markets – a starting point for the economic outlook, market-entry and sales planning, and scenario analysis.
For funding and treasury decisions, the remaining indicators provide the macro context: government debt and fiscal deficits, sovereign interest payments, current account balances with goods and services components, investment ratios, productivity (GDP per hour worked) and working-age demographics. These macro drivers shape interest rates, bond yields and emerging-market exchange rates – CNY, INR, BRL, IDR, MXN and TRY – and with them hedging costs and currency exposure in FX risk management. Data sources: IMF, World Bank, Our World in Data; as of June 2026.
