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Macro early-warning indicators

Macro Monitor

Timely, free-to-use market and macro indicators that tend to move ahead of the business cycle — risk sentiment, commodities, the US labour market and the euro area's leading indicators. Early-warning signals for the economy and FX risk.

Updated: July 12, 2026 · Sources: FRED (Cboe VIX; U.S. labour market — BLS/DOL; euro-area sovereign spreads — ECB monthly averages), U.S. Energy Information Administration (Brent, WTI, Henry Hub), COCHILCO / Banco Central de Chile (gold and copper, daily — via Chile's open-data portal), European Commission / Eurostat (euro-area confidence indicators).

Risk sentiment & commodities

Sentiment
VIX (equity vol)
15.03
▼ 0.8points
As of Jul 10, 2026 · Cboe via FRED
Bund-BTP spread
77.0
▼ 2.4bps
As of Jun 2026 · ECB monthly average · ECB
Bund-OAT spread
71.6
▲ 2.1bps
As of Jun 2026 · ECB monthly average · ECB
Commodities
Brent
$76.01
▼ 0.3USD/bbl
As of Jul 10, 2026 · U.S. EIA
WTI
$71.41
▼ 0.7USD/bbl
As of Jul 10, 2026 · U.S. EIA
Gold
$4,113.70
▼ 16.9USD/oz
As of Jul 10, 2026 · COCHILCO (Chile)
Natural gas (Henry Hub)
$2.94
▼ 0.1USD/MMBtu
As of Jul 10, 2026 · U.S. EIA
Copper (Dr. Copper)
$6.28
▲ 0.1USD/lb
As of Jul 10, 2026 · COCHILCO / Banco Central de Chile

US labor market

US payrolls Δ
+57 k
▲ 57.0MoM
As of Jun 2026 · BLS via FRED
US unemployment rate
4.2
▼ 0.1%
As of Jun 2026 · BLS via FRED
Initial jobless claims
215 k
▼ 2.0weekly
As of Jul 4, 2026 · DOL via FRED
Avg hourly earnings YoY
3.5%
USD 37.64
As of Jun 2026 · BLS via FRED

Eurozone – leading indicators (European Commission)

ESI eurozone
95.0
▲ 1.3avg=100
As of Jun 2026 · European Commission
Industry confidence EZ
-7.7
▲ 0.2balance
As of Jun 2026 · European Commission
Consumer confidence EZ
-17.7
▲ 1.3balance
As of Jun 2026 · European Commission
Services confidence EZ
3.2
▲ 0.6balance
As of Jun 2026 · European Commission

What the macro monitor tracks

The macro monitor brings together indicators that tend to move ahead of the business cycle: risk sentiment (the VIX), euro-area sovereign-bond spreads, commodity prices (oil, gold, natural gas, copper), the US labour market, and the European Commission's euro-area confidence indicators. Together they give an early read on financial conditions and growth momentum — all from freely reusable sources.

Coverage and cadence

Risk and commodity gauges update on every trading day; US labour-market data monthly or weekly; euro-area sovereign spreads as ECB monthly averages; and the EU leading indicators monthly. Each indicator carries its own as-of date, so you always see how fresh a value is.

Why it matters for FX and treasury

Shifts in risk sentiment, commodity prices and rate spreads are among the earliest drivers of currency moves and central-bank decisions. Corporates with foreign-currency exposure use these signals as an early input for hedging, funding and cash-flow planning.

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