Government bond yields at 2, 5, 10 and 30 years for the G7 countries – quarterly averages since 2020, current levels, spread analyses and outlook.
Last updated: June 26, 2026
Current Overview (late June 2026)
Spot yields, 12-month trend and two spreads: curve steepness and distance to the policy rate. All spreads in basis points with sign. Click a column header to sort.
How to read this: “Δ 10Y 12 mo.” = change in the 10-year yield versus a year ago (+ = yields up). “Steepness 30Y−10Y” = yield premium of the very long end over the 10-year benchmark; it can point to higher term premia, fiscal risks, inflation expectations or technical supply/demand factors. “10Y minus policy rate” = distance to current monetary policy. A negative value can point to expected rate cuts; a clearly positive value can reflect higher risk premia, inflation expectations or expected rate hikes. For Germany, France and Italy the ECB deposit facility rate is used as the policy rate.
The 10-Year Yield in the Long View
Annual averages of 10-year government bond yields since 1991 – the only maturity with official, comparable depth across all G7. Multiple rate cycles at a glance: the high levels of the 1990s, the decline into 2008, the zero/negative-rate era of the 2010s and the turning point from 2022.
10-year yields since 1991 (% p.a., annual average)
Source: OECD via FRED, annual averages. Italy starts in 1991 (series start). Use the legend to show or hide countries individually.
Yield Histories since 2020
Note: For Germany, France, Italy and the UK, the 5Y and 30Y time series are approximate reconstructions from 10Y data and documented maturity spreads (±10–15 bp); the 2Y time series for the UK, France, Italy and Japan are reconstructed from point anchors and policy rate paths (±10–25 bp). The 10Y series, all US/Canada data and all spot values are official or current market data. Details in the methodology below.
2-Year Government Bonds (%)
The short end provides indicative signals about policy rate and money market expectations – for some countries the historical 2Y series are approximate reconstructions, spot values are current market data. The UK trades above the Bank Rate (priced-in hike risks plus fiscal/term premium), Japan moves in line with the BoJ normalisation path, and euro-area yields jumped in the March 2026 sell-off.
5-Year Government Bonds (%)
The belly of the curve is closely tied to monetary policy. The 2024/25 rate cuts pushed 5Y yields lower – except in Japan, where BoJ normalisation continues to lift them.
10-Year Government Bonds (%)
The benchmark maturity. From the 2020 zero-rate extreme (Bund: −0.6%) to the global rate turnaround of 2022. Since 2025 markets have been diverging: Canada remains comparatively stable while Japan normalises strongly.
30-Year Government Bonds (%)
Fiscal and inflation concerns are most visible at the long end. UK gilts at their highest level since 1998, US Treasuries near 5%, Japanese 30Y at or near record highs.
12-Month Trend: Change in Yields (basis points)
Current spot yield minus the level a year ago. Shows where yields are currently rising or falling: Japan with the strongest increase across all maturities; the US with comparatively moderate moves at the short end.
Spreads & Monetary Policy
Curve Steepness: 10Y minus 2Y (basis points)
The classic business cycle and monetary policy indicator. In 2022/23 the curves in the US, Canada and the UK inverted (restrictive monetary policy); since 2024/25 they have turned positive again – an April 2026 Reuters poll expects further steepening towards ~85 bp in the US.
10Y Spread over German Bunds (basis points)
The risk premium of selected euro-area countries over Germany – a key risk indicator for the euro area. Use the legend to show or hide France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece individually. Notably, Portugal and Spain now trade tighter than France, whose spread has risen markedly after the rating downgrades by Fitch and S&P; Greece sits roughly at Italy’s level.
Policy Rate vs. 10Y vs. 30Y (current, %)
Where the curve sits relative to the policy rate: in Japan, the UK and Germany the long end sits well above the current policy rate. This reflects not only monetary policy expectations but above all term premia, fiscal supply, inflation risks and supply/demand factors at the long end.
Credit Spreads (Corporate vs. Government Bonds)
The yield premium of corporate bonds over government bonds (option-adjusted spread, OAS) – the gauge of default risk and risk appetite. Organised by currency area (USD/EUR) and rating (investment grade / high yield), not by individual G7 country.
Investment Grade OAS (basis points)
Spread of high-quality corporate bonds over government bonds. The 2020 Covid shock and the 2022 rate turnaround stand out. Extremely tight in 2024/25 (US below 100 bp) – a sign of high risk appetite and slim premia.
High Yield OAS (basis points)
Spread of high-yield bonds (rated below investment grade). Far more volatile: above 850 bp at the 2020 Covid peak, widening sharply again in 2022, recently tight again (~260–280 bp) despite higher rates.
Outlook
Market and Bank Forecasts for 10Y Yields
Selected forecasts and consensus estimates – survey medians and individual house views, see the Source/Methodology column.
Market
Current
End-2026
Source / Methodology
As of
US Treasury 10Y
4.41%
4.25–4.35%
Reuters poll (>50 strategists, median) / J.P. Morgan (house view)
Apr. 2026
Bund 10Y
2.93%
~3.25%
Goldman Sachs (house view)
Spring 2026
Gilt 10Y
4.71%
~4.32% (range 3.9–4.75)
Average of 9 investment banks
Spring 2026
JGB 10Y
2.63%
~2.25%
Capital Economics (house view)
Spring 2026
BTP 10Y
3.67%
Spread compression continues
Market consensus (qualitative)
Jun. 2026
Most forecasts were produced before the April/May 2026 energy price shock – risks were therefore skewed to the upside; the easing of oil prices in mid-June 2026 tempers this upside risk somewhat and makes it more two-sided. The Reuters poll (April 2026) also expects further curve steepening: the 10Y−2Y spread from ~50 to ~85 basis points within 12 months. Individual house views were taken from publicly cited market commentary and research summaries in spring 2026; exact publication dates may vary by source.
All institutions and trademarks mentioned are the property of their respective owners. They are referenced solely for source attribution; no affiliation with or endorsement by these institutions is implied.
Key Drivers in 2026
US fiscal deficit: Heavy Treasury issuance and a lack of consolidation keep the term premium elevated; the 30Y yield temporarily rose above 5.19% – its highest level since 2007.
Energy price shock / monetary policy: The Middle East conflict raises short-term inflation risks and makes rate cuts harder; previously dominant rate-cut expectations have been pushed back markedly. In mid-June 2026, however, oil prices eased (Brent from around $97 to about $90) on signals of possible de-escalation, according to market reports (incl. Reuters, June 11–12); this modestly relieved pressure at the long end and nudged euro-area and UK yields lower. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bp to 2.25% on June 11, 2026 (effective June 17); the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on June 10. In the following week the Fed held its policy rate at 3.50–3.75% on June 17 (12–0 vote) but signalled a more hawkish path via its rate projections (the median for end-2026 raised from 3.4% to 3.8%, with nine of 18 members expecting further hikes in 2026); the Bank of Japan raised its rate by 25 bp to 1.00% on June 16 (highest since 1995); and the Bank of England held at 3.75% on June 18 (7–2 majority). Overall, central banks are acting more data-dependent and lean more hawkish than at the start of the year.
BoJ normalisation: Policy rate at 1.00% following the June 16, 2026 hike (highest since 1995), with markets pricing one further normalisation step in 2026. Bond purchases have been scaled back substantially since 2024 and the next tapering plan is up for review in June; super-long JGB yields are at record highs (30Y ~3.8–3.9%) while traditional buyers (life insurers) step away – elevated volatility at the long end.
France: Rating downgrades (incl. S&P to A+ in Oct. 2025), a deficit of 5.4% of GDP and rising interest costs (2026: €59.3bn per Agence France Trésor; 2020: €36bn) weigh on OATs. The gap to Italian BTPs has narrowed considerably – though Italy still trades at a yield premium over France.
German fiscal package: The 2026 budget includes ~€180bn of new borrowing incl. special funds (core budget ~€98bn); the NATO defence ratio for 2026 is around 2.8% of GDP under government plans, rising further through 2029. The higher Bund supply argues for a structurally higher yield level than in the negative-rate era.
UK fiscal risk: Gilts carry the highest 10Y yield in the G7 at ~4.8%; the 30Y around 5.5% is near its highest since 1998. The long end reflects inflation risks, fiscal uncertainty and high duration premia; the short end signals hike risks, not just pure policy rate expectations.
Credit spreads: Corporate bond risk premia are historically tight in 2024/25 (US investment grade ~75 bp, US high yield ~270 bp) – the market is pricing little default risk and high risk appetite. A marked widening would be an early warning of tighter financing conditions.
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G7 Long-Term Interest Rates: Government Bond Yields, Yield Curve and Rate Outlook for Financing and Treasury
The yields of 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year government bonds of the G7 countries – US Treasuries, Canadian government bonds, British gilts, German Bunds, French OATs, Italian BTPs and Japanese JGBs – are the reference rates of global capital markets. This page documents the interest rate development since 2020 as time series: from the zero and negative rate environment through the 2022 rate turnaround to current yield levels, plus the long-term interest rate comparison of the major industrial countries, curve steepness (in particular the 10-year minus 2-year and 30-year minus 10-year spreads), the risk premium of France and Italy over German Bunds, and the distance of capital market rates to the policy rates of the Fed, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan.
For financing, investment and treasury decisions, long-term interest rates are the key benchmark: they determine the refinancing costs of governments and companies and shape mortgage rates, pension obligations and the valuation of bond portfolios. In addition, credit spreads (option-adjusted spreads of investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds) show the risk premium and financing conditions in the corporate bond market. The rate outlook summarises consensus and bank forecasts for 10-year yields in 2026 and 2027 (incl. Reuters polls, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Capital Economics) and identifies the drivers of the rate trajectory: fiscal deficits and bond supply, term premia, inflation expectations and the normalisation of the Bank of Japan. Data sources: Federal Reserve (H.15/FRED), Bank of Canada, Japanese Ministry of Finance, OECD, Deutsche Bundesbank, Banque de France / Agence France Trésor, Banca d’Italia / MEF – Dipartimento del Tesoro, UK Debt Management Office / Bank of England, Eurostat, ECB Data Portal; as of June 2026.
