Government bond yields at 2, 5, 10 and 30 years for the G7 countries – quarterly averages since 2020, latest available levels, spread analyses and historical forecast reference.
Data as of: September 24–25, 2026 · last reviewed: October 4, 2026
AI-assisted · reviewed by Stefan Hamberger
Current Overview — latest available observations through September 24–25, 2026
Spot yields, 12-month trend and two spreads: curve steepness and distance to the policy rate. All spreads in basis points with sign. Click a column header to sort.
* Estimated/reconstructed from the 10Y value and the last observed curve shape – not an observed market quotation. Steepness cells marked * are derived from an estimated 30Y yield; they are not an observed curve spread. † Carried over unchanged from September 10, 2026 (UK) and September 4, 2026 (Japan, 30Y). Only the 10Y value is confirmed market data for Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Canada; all US values are confirmed (FRED/H.15). Charts below that use the spot values include these estimates.
How to read this: “Δ 10Y 12 mo.” = change in the 10-year yield versus a year ago (+ = yields up). “Steepness 30Y−10Y” = yield premium of the very long end over the 10-year benchmark; it can point to higher term premia, fiscal risks, inflation expectations or technical supply/demand factors. “10Y minus policy rate” = distance to current monetary policy. A negative value can point to expected rate cuts; a clearly positive value can reflect higher risk premia, inflation expectations or expected rate hikes. For Germany, France and Italy the ECB deposit facility rate is used as the policy rate.
The 10-Year Yield in the Long View
Annual averages of 10-year government bond yields since 1991 – the only maturity with official, comparable depth across all G7. Multiple rate cycles at a glance: the high levels of the 1990s, the decline into 2008, the zero/negative-rate era of the 2010s and the turning point from 2022.
10-year yields since 1991 (% p.a., annual average)
Source: OECD via FRED, annual averages. Italy starts in 1991 (series start). Use the legend to show or hide countries individually.
Yield Histories since 2020
Note: For Germany, France, Italy and the UK, the 5Y and 30Y time series are approximate reconstructions from 10Y data and documented maturity spreads; the 2Y time series for the UK, France, Italy and Japan are reconstructed from point anchors and policy rate paths. Indicative reconstruction; the estimation error has not been independently validated and may be materially larger during volatile or non-parallel curve movements. The 10Y series and all US and Canadian historical data are official or market data; spot values are market data only where not marked as estimated (see table footnote). *2026Q3 is Q3 to date (from July 1), partly approximated from current market data – not a completed quarterly average and not comparable with the closed quarters. Details in the methodology below.
2-Year Government Bonds (%)
The short end provides indicative signals about policy rate and money market expectations – for some countries the historical 2Y series are approximate reconstructions, spot values partly estimated, see table footnote. The UK trades above the Bank Rate (priced-in hike risks plus fiscal/term premium), Japan moves in line with the BoJ normalisation path, and euro-area yields jumped in the March 2026 sell-off.
5-Year Government Bonds (%)
The belly of the curve is strongly influenced by expected monetary policy, term premia and bond-market supply and demand. The 2024/25 rate cuts pushed 5Y yields lower – except in Japan, where BoJ normalisation continues to lift them.
10-Year Government Bonds (%)
The benchmark maturity. From the 2020 zero-rate extreme (Bund: −0.6%) to the global rate turnaround of 2022. Since 2025 markets have been diverging: Canada remains comparatively stable while Japan normalises strongly.
30-Year Government Bonds (%)
Fiscal and inflation concerns are most visible at the long end. UK gilts at their highest level since 1998, US Treasuries above 5%, Japanese 30Y near record highs.
12-Month Trend: Change in Yields (basis points)
Current spot yield minus the level a year ago. Shows where yields are currently rising or falling: Japan with the strongest increase across all maturities; the US with comparatively moderate moves at the short end.
Spreads & Monetary Policy
*2026Q3 is Q3 to date (from July 1), partly approximated from current market data – not a completed quarterly average and not comparable with the closed quarters.
Curve Steepness: 10Y minus 2Y (basis points)
A widely followed indicator of monetary-policy expectations and the yield-curve cycle. In 2022/23 the curves in the US, Canada and the UK inverted (restrictive monetary policy); since 2024/25 they have turned positive again – an April 2026 Reuters poll expects further steepening towards ~85 bp in the US.
10Y Spread over German Bunds (basis points)
The risk premium of selected euro-area countries over Germany – a key risk indicator for the euro area. Use the legend to show or hide France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece individually. Notably, Portugal and Spain now trade tighter than France, whose spread has risen markedly after the rating downgrades by Fitch and S&P; Greece sits roughly at Italy’s level.
Policy Rate vs. 10Y vs. 30Y (current, %)
Where the curve sits relative to the policy rate: in Japan, the UK and Germany the long end sits well above the current policy rate. This reflects not only monetary policy expectations but above all term premia, fiscal supply, inflation risks and supply/demand factors at the long end.
Credit Spreads (Corporate vs. Government Bonds)
The yield premium of corporate bonds over government bonds (option-adjusted spread, OAS) – the gauge of default risk and risk appetite. Organised by currency area (USD/EUR) and rating (investment grade / high yield), not by individual G7 country. *2026Q3 is Q3 to date (from July 1), partly approximated from current market data – not a completed quarterly average and not comparable with the closed quarters.
Investment Grade OAS (basis points)
Spread of high-quality corporate bonds over government bonds. The 2020 Covid shock and the 2022 rate turnaround stand out. Extremely tight in 2024/25 (US below 100 bp) – a sign of high risk appetite and slim premia.
High Yield OAS (basis points)
Spread of high-yield bonds (rated below investment grade). Far more volatile: above 850 bp at the 2020 Covid peak, widening sharply again in 2022, recently tight again (~260–280 bp) despite higher rates.
Historical forecasts
Reuters poll for the US 10Y yield – forecast made in April 2026
Survey median of a single poll – see the Source/Methodology column.
Market
Latest (Sep 24, 2026)
End-2026
Source / Methodology
As of
US Treasury 10Y
5.18%
4.25–4.35%
Reuters poll (>50 strategists, median), April 2026
Apr. 2026
Forecast made in April 2026 – materially overtaken by subsequent market developments (US 10Y at 5.18% on Sep 24, 2026 vs. an end-2026 forecast of 4.25–4.35%). Not a current outlook. The forecast was produced before the April/May 2026 energy price shock – risks were therefore skewed to the upside. After an easing in mid-June, the Middle East conflict flared up again in early July 2026 (US military strikes on Iran, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz); the resulting inflation concerns pushed yields higher again and shifted the risks back to the upside. The Reuters poll (April 2026) also expects further curve steepening: the 10Y−2Y spread from ~50 to ~85 basis points within 12 months.
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Key Drivers in 2026
US fiscal deficit: Heavy Treasury issuance and a lack of consolidation keep the term premium elevated; the 30Y yield briefly touched 5.27% on September 1–2, 2026 and stood at 5.25% as of September 3 (FRED DGS30) – still its highest level since 2007.
Energy price shock / monetary policy: The Middle East conflict raises short-term inflation risks and makes rate cuts harder; previously dominant rate-cut expectations have been pushed back markedly. After a temporary easing in mid-June, the conflict flared up again in early July 2026: US military strikes on Iran and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent up around 4% intraday on July 7–8 (its biggest daily gain since May, per market reports incl. CNBC/Reuters) before it fell back to about $76 by July 9 as mediation efforts emerged. The renewed inflation concerns triggered a global sell-off at the long end: the 10-year US yield rose to 4.56%, the 30-year to just above 5%; Bund, gilt and JGB yields also climbed. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bp to 2.25% on June 11, 2026 (effective June 17); the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on June 10. In the following week the Fed held its policy rate at 3.50–3.75% on June 17 (12–0 vote) but signalled a more hawkish path via its rate projections (the median for end-2026 raised from 3.4% to 3.8%, with nine of 18 members expecting further hikes in 2026); the Bank of Japan raised its rate by 25 bp to 1.00% on June 16 (highest since 1995); and the Bank of England held at 3.75% on June 18 (7–2 majority). At its meeting on July 23, 2026 the ECB left its key rates unchanged (deposit rate 2.25%) and pointed to persistent inflation risks from high energy prices; money markets, per market data, were at that point pricing in at least two further rate hikes in 2026, though a Reuters poll from September 3 found economists now expect just one more step, to 2.50% on September 10, as the likely last hike of the campaign. In the week to July 24 a global sell-off at the long end drove yields to fresh multi-year highs: the 10-year Bund yield to around 3.20% (its highest in over 15 years) and the French OAT to ~4.03% (a 17-year high); Brent traded back near $100, per market data. Overall, central banks are acting more data-dependent and lean more hawkish than at the start of the year. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for a sixth consecutive decision on July 15, 2026. The Fed held its target range again at 3.50–3.75% at its July 28–29, 2026 meeting (a 9–3 vote, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan dissenting in favor of a 25bp increase, per Reuters/CBS News). After the US and Iran paused hostilities and resumed diplomatic contacts in late July, oil prices retreated (Brent, per market data, from briefly near $100 to around $87–90); this eased near-term inflation concerns and pulled long-end yields back slightly in the week to July 28 – the Bund yield eased from its 15-year high of ~3.20% to around 3.13%, the French OAT from its 17-year high of just under 3.97% to around 3.92%, gilts from ~5.07% to 4.96%, and JGBs from ~2.82% to 2.77%. The Bank of England held its policy rate at 3.75% on July 30, 2026 (6–3 vote, with three members favoring a hike); the Fed held its target range again at 3.50–3.75% on July 29. Stronger-than-expected eurozone Q2 GDP growth (+0.4% q/q, Spain +0.7%) and firmer German and Spanish inflation readings fueled speculation, per market reports, about a possible second ECB rate hike in 2026, perhaps in September; the Bund yield accordingly moved back up to around 3.15–3.18% by July 31 after having eased to about 3.13%. The ECB deposit rate itself was left unchanged at 2.25% at its July 23 meeting. None of the five major G7 central banks changed its policy rate during August 2026; as of end-August, the next decisions were due on September 2 (BoC), September 10 (ECB), September 15–16 (Fed), September 17 (BoE) and September 17–18 (BoJ). Long-end yields nonetheless kept drifting higher through August: the 10-year US yield rose to 4.73% by August 28 (FRED DGS10), the Bund yield to around 3.32%, and the French OAT to around 4.17% (market data, end of August 2026). The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive decision on September 2, 2026, though it flagged higher inflation risks from new tariffs. In early September a fresh global bond sell-off (fuelled in part by hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and rising expectations of a second ECB hike at the September 10 meeting) pushed yields higher still before a partial retracement into the week's close: the US 10-year yield stood at 4.77% on September 3 (FRED DGS10, having briefly touched 4.79%), the Bund yield at around 3.34%, and the French OAT reached a fresh multi-year high of around 4.21% (September 4) amid persistent concerns over France's fiscal position. UK gilts marked around 5.14% (10Y, September 4), their highest level since 2008. Japan's 10-year yield briefly climbed to around 3.0% on September 1–2 (highest since 1996) before a well-received 30Y JGB auction and an easing global sell-off pulled it back to around 2.91% by September 4. In the week of September 9–11, 2026, an oil price surge (Brent trading, per market reports, above the $100 mark on escalating tensions in Yemen and around the Bab-el-Mandeb strait), hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and persistent concerns over US fiscal and debt sustainability triggered a broad global bond sell-off: 10-year yields hit fresh multi-year or cycle highs in the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Canada (see the SPOT table above). The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bp to 2.50% on September 10, 2026, citing persistent inflation risk from energy prices; ECB President Lagarde reportedly called the move "a no-brainer" and signalled further hikes remained possible on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Those hawkish expectations were confirmed at the Fed's meeting: on September 16, 2026 the FOMC raised its target range by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00% in a unanimous 12–0 vote – its first hike since July 2023 – with the updated dot plot showing 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one further increase this year. The Bank of England held at 3.75% again on September 17, 2026 (6–3 vote – Greene, Mann and Pill again dissenting in favor of a 25 bp hike to 4.00%), even as UK inflation rose to a five-month high of 3.1% on the energy price shock (ONS, September 16; core rate unchanged at 2.6%); its next meeting falls on November 5, 2026. The Bank of Japan delivered the expected hike: on September 18, 2026, following its two-day meeting (September 17–18), the BoJ raised its policy rate by 25 bp to 1.25% by a 7–2 vote – effective September 24, 2026 – reaching its highest level since September 1995; Asada and Sato dissented. The US 10-year yield eased back slightly in the week to September 17, to 4.94% (FRED DGS10), after briefly touching 5.01% on September 16; the 30-year yield stood at 5.29% (FRED DGS30). The Bund yield eased to around 3.50% by September 18 (from 3.55–3.57% mid-September), while the Italian BTP yield rose to 4.43% – its highest level since November 2023. In the week to September 24–25, 2026, the global bond sell-off widened further: the US 10-year yield jumped to 5.18% (FRED DGS10, as of September 24; per market reports briefly as high as 5.23%, its highest level in roughly two decades), the 30-year yield to 5.47%, the 5-year to 5.03% and the 2-year to 4.87% (all FRED, September 24) – driven, per market reports including CNBC, by robust US economic data reinforcing expectations of further Fed tightening. The Bund yield rose to 3.58% (market-data aggregation, September 24–25, its highest since 2009), the French OAT yield to 4.70% (market reports, September 25, highest since 2008, amid the renewed budget crisis), the Italian BTP yield to 4.50%, and the Japanese 10-year yield to 3.07% (market-data aggregation, September 24–25, highest since August 1996). The Canadian 10-year yield stood at 3.93%, having briefly touched a near-three-year high of 4.00% on September 24. Credit spreads widened: the US high-yield OAS to 280bp (FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2, September 24, from 270bp), the Euro high-yield OAS to 277bp (from 269bp), while the US investment-grade OAS was little changed at 79bp (from 78bp).
BoJ normalisation: On September 18, 2026 the BoJ raised its policy rate by 25 bp to 1.25% (7–2 vote), effective September 24, 2026 – its highest level since September 1995, just three months after the previous hike (June 16). The BoJ signalled further gradual hikes if underlying core inflation continues moving toward 2%; next meeting: October 29–30, 2026. Bond purchases have been scaled back substantially since 2024; a June 2026 interim assessment left the reduction plan (toward roughly ¥2tn/month by Q1 2027) broadly unchanged, and the BoJ has said it will no longer hold scheduled reviews, only ad-hoc adjustments at future meetings if needed. Super-long JGB yields were close to the record highs set in late August (30Y around 4.00%); the last observed level was around 3.97% on September 4, 2026, which is the 30Y value carried over in the table above (no current record is implied), while traditional buyers (life insurers) step away – elevated volatility at the long end.
France: Rating downgrades (incl. S&P to A+ in Oct. 2025), a deficit of 5.4% of GDP and rising interest costs (2026: €59.3bn per Agence France Trésor; 2020: €36bn) weigh on OATs. The gap to Italian BTPs has narrowed considerably – France now trades at a slight yield premium over Italy.
German fiscal package: The 2026 budget includes ~€180bn of new borrowing incl. special funds (core budget ~€98bn); the NATO defence ratio for 2026 is around 2.8% of GDP under government plans, rising further through 2029. The higher Bund supply argues for a structurally higher yield level than in the negative-rate era.
UK fiscal risk: Gilts remain among the highest 10Y yields in the G7 at around 5.07% (mid-September 2026) after briefly touching 5.295% intraday on September 10 – the highest level since August 2007; the gap over the US has narrowed sharply since the US 10-year yield itself rose to 5.02% (September 15, highest since July 2007). The 30Y stood around 5.94% as of early-to-mid September. The long end reflects inflation risks, fiscal uncertainty and high duration premia; the short end signals hike risks, not just pure policy rate expectations. The Bank of England held its policy rate again at 3.75% on September 17, 2026 (6–3 vote – Greene, Mann and Pill again dissenting for a 25 bp hike), the same split as July; its next meeting falls on November 5, 2026.
Credit spreads: Corporate bond risk premia remain historically tight (US investment grade 79 bp in July; US high yield 263 bp; Euro high yield 256 bp in late August) – the market is pricing little default risk and high risk appetite. As of September 24, 2026 the ICE BofA OAS per FRED stood at 79 bp (US IG, up from 78 bp), 280 bp (US HY, up from 270 bp) and 277 bp (Euro HY, up from 269 bp). A marked widening would be an early warning of tighter financing conditions.
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G7 Long-Term Interest Rates: Government Bond Yields, Yield Curve and Rate Forecasts (Historical Reference) for Financing and Treasury
The yields of 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year government bonds of the G7 countries – US Treasuries, Canadian government bonds, British gilts, German Bunds, French OATs, Italian BTPs and Japanese JGBs – are the reference rates of global capital markets. This page documents the interest rate development since 2020 as time series: from the zero and negative rate environment through the 2022 rate turnaround to the latest available observed and estimated yield levels, plus the long-term interest rate comparison of the major industrial countries, curve steepness (in particular the 10-year minus 2-year and 30-year minus 10-year spreads), the risk premium of France and Italy over German Bunds, and the distance of capital market rates to the policy rates of the Fed, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan.
For financing, investment and treasury decisions, long-term interest rates are the key benchmark: they determine the refinancing costs of governments and companies and shape mortgage rates, pension obligations and the valuation of bond portfolios. In addition, credit spreads (option-adjusted spreads of investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds) show the risk premium and financing conditions in the corporate bond market. The page also documents an April 2026 Reuters poll for the US 10-year yield (a historical forecast, since overtaken by market developments) and identifies the drivers of the rate trajectory: fiscal deficits and bond supply, term premia, inflation expectations and the normalisation of the Bank of Japan. Data sources: Federal Reserve (H.15/FRED), Bank of Canada, Japanese Ministry of Finance, OECD, Eurostat, ECB; as of September 2026.
