Business cycle

Business Cycle Monitor

Official leading indicators for 16 major economies — a timely read on where each economy sits in its business cycle. A reading above 100 means activity is above its long-term trend; below 100 means below trend. The month-on-month change shows the direction of momentum.

As of: July 24, 2026 · Latest month: 2026-06
Sources: OECD (Composite Leading Indicators & Business Confidence Indicators), European Commission (euro-area and Ireland), and — where shown — China NBS and Japan Cabinet Office. Data reused under the respective open-data terms with attribution.

Above trend (>100) Below trend (<100) — rolling 12 months · dashed: 100 = long-term trend · Δ = change vs. previous month

All countries — data table

16 Countries tracked

13 Above trend

3 Below trend

Country	Leading Indicator (CLI)	Δ m/m	Business Confidence (BCI)	Δ m/m
🇺🇸United States	100.8	0.0	100.1	0.0
🇪🇺Euro area	95.0	+1.3	0.0	0.0
🇩🇪Germany	100.7	-0.1	99.3	+0.1
🇫🇷France	100.6	0.0	100.0	-0.1
🇮🇹Italy	100.0	-0.2	100.0	0.0
🇪🇸Spain	100.4	-0.2	101.0	+0.1
🇬🇧United Kingdom	100.3	-0.2	97.6	-0.9
🇮🇪Ireland	96.6	+3.1	0.0	0.0
🇯🇵Japan	100.3	+0.1	101.4	+0.1
🇨🇳China	98.6	0.0	98.8	0.0
🇮🇳India	101.3	+0.1	99.6	0.0
🇦🇺Australia	100.2	-0.1	99.7	0.0
🇧🇷Brazil	103.5	-0.2	100.4	+0.3
🇨🇦Canada	101.8	+0.1	99.6	0.0
🇲🇽Mexico	103.0	0.0	98.3	+0.1
🇰🇷South Korea	102.9	+0.2	99.4	+0.1

What this shows

The monitor brings together official indicators that tend to move ahead of GDP: the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI), designed to flag turning points in the business cycle, and the OECD Business Confidence Indicator (BCI). Both are published monthly and are directly comparable across countries on a single scale (100 = long-term average). They serve a similar early-warning purpose to widely-watched business surveys — signalling whether momentum is improving or deteriorating weeks before hard data confirm it. All data is drawn from freely reusable official sources (OECD, national statistics offices and central banks).

Coverage

This monitor tracks 16 major economies — the United States, the euro area and its largest members, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Japan, China, India and other major markets. Cross-country indicators come from the OECD; Ireland, which is not in the OECD CLI, is covered via the European Commission's confidence indicators.

Why it matters for FX and treasury

Diverging cycles across countries often precede moves in exchange rates and central-bank policy. Corporates with foreign-currency exposure use this cross-country read as an early input for hedging, funding and cash-flow planning.

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