Business cycle indicators
Business Cycle Monitor
Manufacturing and services business activity indices for 17 countries on a rolling 12-month window. Readings above 50 signal expansion, below 50 contraction — a well-established leading indicator for the economy.
AI-assisted · reviewed by Stefan Hamberger
All countries — data table
| Country | Manufacturing | Δ m/m | Services | Δ m/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸United States | 53.9 | 0.0 | 54.6 | +3.4 |
| 🇪🇺Euro area | 51.9 | +0.5 | 51.7 | +2.3 |
| 🇩🇪Germany | 52.2 | +1.9 | 49.8 | +1.2 |
| 🇫🇷France | 49.8 | -1.4 | 49.6 | +2.8 |
| 🇮🇹Italy | 51.3 | -0.9 | 52.5 | +2.3 |
| 🇪🇸Spain | 50.2 | +0.5 | 58.3 | +4.1 |
| 🇬🇧United Kingdom | 51.9 | -0.6 | 52.1 | +3.3 |
| 🇮🇪Ireland | 55.1 | +0.2 | 55.2 | +1.0 |
| 🇯🇵Japan | 54.5 | -0.3 | 51.2 | -1.0 |
| 🇨🇳China | 50.9 | -0.8 | 50.4 | -3.7 |
| 🇮🇳India | 53.5 | -0.7 | 53.3 | -4.1 |
| 🇦🇺Australia | 52.0 | +0.5 | 53.6 | +3.1 |
| 🇧🇷Brazil | 47.5 | -3.3 | 49.7 | -1.6 |
| 🇷🇺Russia | 50.7 | +0.4 | 49.0 | +0.8 |
| 🇨🇦Canada | 53.5 | +0.5 | n/a | |
| 🇲🇽Mexico | 51.3 | 0.0 | n/a | |
| 🇰🇷South Korea | 53.1 | +1.0 | n/a |
What this indicator tells you
Each month, purchasing managers in manufacturing and services are surveyed about business conditions. The resulting business activity index is published weeks ahead of official GDP data, making it one of the most timely leading indicators of economic activity — and a useful signal for currency and interest-rate trends. A reading above 50 means the sector is expanding versus the previous month; below 50 means it is contracting. The distance from 50 indicates the pace of change.
Coverage
This monitor tracks manufacturing and services business activity indices for 17 economies — the United States, the euro area and its largest members, the United Kingdom, Japan, China, India and other major markets — on a rolling 12-month window, so turning points in the business cycle are visible at a glance.
Why it matters for FX and treasury
Business activity indicators can provide timely signals of changing economic momentum. Differences across countries may influence monetary-policy expectations and can therefore be relevant for FX and treasury analysis — but they should not be interpreted as standalone forecasts of exchange rates. Corporates with foreign-currency exposure can use this momentum as one input among several for hedging and cash-flow planning.
General information only. Not investment research, investment advice or a recommendation. Data may be delayed, revised, estimated or incomplete. Business-cycle indicators should not be used as standalone forecasts of economic activity, interest rates or exchange rates.
Data sources and rights. The data shown on this page is compiled from publicly accessible sources and is reproduced, with source attribution, solely for information and citation purposes. GLORIARMS claims no ownership or database rights in the underlying data; all rights remain with the respective sources and rights holders. Trademarks and the names of institutions and products are used solely to identify sources; no affiliation, partnership or endorsement is thereby implied. Reconstructed, estimated or rounded values are labelled as such and must not be treated as official quotations. Rights holders who wish to object to a use may contact webadmin@gloriarms.com; the content concerned will be reviewed and removed where appropriate.